Mali is facing a very high risk of a new coup d’état, according to Michael Shurkin, Director of Global Programmes at 14 North Strategies. In an interview with FRANCE 24’s Mark Owen, Shurkin expressed his concerns about the current situation in the West African country, which has been plagued by jihadist insurgence and rebel groups.

The Current Situation in Mali

The country has been struggling to contain the threat posed by the jihadist group JNIM and the Tuareg rebels of the FLA. These groups have been gaining strength and momentum, leaving the Malian government on the backfoot. Shurkin believes that the situation is dire, with the government facing significant challenges in maintaining control and stability.

Risk of a New Coup d’état

Shurkin’s warning of a high risk of a new coup d’état is based on his analysis of the current situation in Mali. He points out that the jihadist group JNIM and the Tuareg rebels of the FLA have the initiative, and the Malian government is struggling to respond effectively. This power vacuum has created an environment in which a new coup d’état could occur, potentially plunging the country into further instability and chaos.

Causes of the Crisis

The crisis in Mali is complex and multifaceted, with a range of factors contributing to the current situation. Some of the key causes include:

• Weakened Government: The Malian government has been weakened by years of corruption, mismanagement, and instability. This has created a power vacuum that has been exploited by jihadist groups and rebel factions.
• Jihadist Insurgency: The rise of jihadist groups such as JNIM has posed a significant threat to the stability of Mali. These groups have been able to exploit the weaknesses of the government and the military, gaining control of large areas of territory.
• Rebel Groups: The Tuareg rebels of the FLA have also played a significant role in the crisis, seeking greater autonomy or independence for their regions. Their actions have contributed to the instability and violence that has plagued the country.

International Response

The international community has been responding to the crisis in Mali, with a range of initiatives and interventions aimed at supporting the government and stabilizing the country. These have included military interventions, economic aid, and diplomatic efforts. However, despite these efforts, the situation remains challenging, and the risk of a new coup d’état remains high.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the situation in Mali is highly unstable, with a very high risk of a new coup d’état. The government is facing significant challenges in maintaining control and stability, and the initiative is currently with the jihadist group JNIM and the Tuareg rebels of the FLA. The international community must continue to support the government and the people of Mali, working to address the root causes of the crisis and promote stability and security in the region.